Demand Slump Persists In May, IATA Says
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By Adrian Schofield
Passenger traffic on international routes declined at an increasing rate in May, contradicting earlier signs that traffic might have bottomed out, according to the International Air Transport Association.
An apparent stabilization seen in previous months’ numbers now looks to have been caused by a small rise in distance flown, due to the “geographical pattern of changing travel markets,” IATA said. “There are some promising signs, but passenger numbers were still falling in May.”
Premium passenger traffic on international routes was down 23.6% in May, compared with a 22% decline in April and a 19.2% fall in the first quarter. Economy traffic dropped 7.6%, resulting in overall international passenger traffic falling 9.2% in May after an 8.2% drop in the first quarter. IATA believes premium fares were down about 20% on average in April, and about the same in May, with international premium revenue falling up to 45%.
Regional results varied widely. For example, there was growth in economy travel on Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Far East routes. Within-Europe and transatlantic traffic showed signs of stabilization, but not revival. Asia/Pacific routes saw larger declines than in April. Traffic within Central America was down an alarming 62.4% in May, due at least partly to the H1N1 swine flu scare.
Meanwhile, IATA also released its latest airline business confidence index. Generally, airline executives responding to an IATA survey were more pessimistic about the industry outlook than they were in previous surveys. Most executives foresee further declines in profitability over the next 12 months. Expectations for cargo and passenger volumes are for greater stability, but views on yield are more pessimistic.
Photo: Mexico City International Airport
