IATA: H1N1 Scare Caused Traffic Drop

Adrian Schofield adrian_schofield@aviationweek.com

The H1N1 flu scare reduced passenger traffic on international routes by 1% in May, although its effect on traffic was far higher in Mexico and the rest of Latin America, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Factoring in other influences, international traffic was down 9.3% year-on-year in May, IATA said. The May data is the first to show the results of the H1N1 scare.

Mexican carriers saw their international traffic drop 40% in May, with the flu effect contributing to this. Latin American airlines recorded a 9.2% traffic fall on a 0.2% capacity rise, resulting in load factor dropping to 64.7% -- the lowest loads for any region.

Globally, IATA says the May numbers provide further proof that the slump in demand for international flights is bottoming out. The May decline was actually greater than the 3.1% year-on-year drop seen in April, although both months were an improvement on the 11.1% reduction in March. For May, passenger capacity was cut by 5%. The fall in international revenues - 30% - was much steeper than the drop in either load factor or demand.

In other regions, Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 14.3% fall in international traffic, versus a 9.3% capacity reduction. North American carriers experienced a 10.9% year-on-year demand decline - significantly worse than the 4.2% fall in April. Capacity was down 6.6%. European network airlines reported a 9.4% traffic drop versus a 6.5% capacity cut. Middle Eastern airlines were the only ones to buck the slump, with traffic growing 9.5% and capacity climbing 14.5%.

Cargo data also showed evidence of year-on-year declines leveling out in May. International cargo volume was down 17.4% in May versus a 9.7% capacity cut. The traffic drop was actually an improvement from the 21.7% year-on-year fall seen in April. "Since December 2008, cargo demand has been moving sideways in the [minus] 20% range," IATA said.

Photo credit: Benet Wilson