U.S. Awaits North Korean Test Results
By David A. Fulghum
OSAN AIR BASE, South Korea
North Korea’s second underground nuclear test and a series of missile launches there are certain signs of more trouble to come, top U.S. military officials stationed in South Korea say, although a major military event — either civil war or a major strike south — is considered remote.
High on the list of expectations, however, are clashes in the western sea where South Korean, North Korean and Chinese fishing interests conflict. Military analysts point to the upcoming start of crabbing season as a flash point.
While the potential for nuclear weapons carry obvious strategic implications, North Korea’s actions are seen as tactical efforts by some observers to secure the current regime’s place.
Other potential headline-grabbing events could be additional ballistic missile firings, further export of missiles and nuclear technology, and cyber attacks that are undisguised in their demonstration of pride of authorship.
For the moment, the United States has its hands full just sorting out what happened during the May 25 test. Real evidence so far is limited to a seismic reading of a 4.7 magnitude tremor from the same area in North Korea where an October 2006 nuclear test produced a 4.1 reading.
Harder preliminary data will not be available for about four days after the test, depending on how long it takes radioactive debris to escape the underground site and drift over the Sea of Japan, where WC-135W Constant Phoenix aircraft will be sampling the air.
These specialized aircraft belong to the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron, 55th Wing stationed at Offutt Air Force Base, Neb.
Analysis of the 2006 explosion was not completed for more than three weeks.
So far, one Washington-based intelligence official says the test produced “less than [a] 2-kiloton explosion. It was bigger than last time, but somewhat less than predicted.” But that is only a guess given that specifics will be known once the analysis is complete.
“It was [triggered] in the same underground complex as the 2006 test,” the official says. And, with an eye to the future, “there is enough plutonium for another test” within the next couple of years. However, it has yet to be determined if this was a uranium or plutonium device,” he says.
As to additional ballistic missile tests, “there is some activity, but it’s hard to tell” if that means another launch is imminent, he says.
Photo: NASA
