FAA Cuts VLJ Forecast, Sees Growth In 2010
Kerry Lynch 
FAA has sharply lowered its short-term expectations for a burgeoning Very Light Jet market, but officials still predict growth in that segment and the general aviation industry as a whole beginning in 2010. FAA last week released its Aerospace Forecast for fiscal 2009-2025. The forecast presents an overview of activity across civil aviation, but relies on the General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys to derive the general aviation predictions. The surveys have been questioned in the past for their accuracy.
FAA officials last week called this year's forecast one of the most complex the agency has undertaken given the rapidly shifting economy. FAA projects that the general aviation fleet will grow 1 percent per year beginning in 2010 and reach 275,230 aircraft by 2025. This compares with the 2008 fleet size of 234,015, according to the FAA. The number of fixed-wing turbojets in the fleet is expected to grow at a 4.8 percent yearly rate, and piston rotorcraft at a 3.9 percent annual rate starting in 2010.
But the agency noted that the climate has changed for the VLJ market. In 2007, industry experts suggested that the market could add 500 VLJs a year by 2010. "However, events since that time have dampened expectations for a rapid penetration of VLJs into the market, most notably the bankruptcy of Eclispe and the demise of DayJet," the agency said. VLJ deliveries in 2008 fell short of FAA's estimate - 262 vs. 400. "Despite the challenging economy and the uncertainty surrounding the future of Eclipse, the forecast assumes that about 200 VLJs will enter the active fleet in the U.S. over the next two years and then increase to a rate of 270 to 300 aircraft a year for the balance of the forecast, totaling 4,875 aircraft by 2025," the agency said.
FAA in past years has factored the increased workload that would be associated with the growth of the VLJ market as part of its argument for a new aviation funding system that included user fees.
The number of hours logged by GA aircraft is forecast to increase at a 1.8 percent rate per year to reach 37.8 million hours in 2025, compared with 27.8 million in 2008. The hours logged by the turboprop and turbojet aircraft in the fleet are forecast to increase at an average rate of 3.9 percent per year, to 12.8 million hours in 2025, compared with 6.6 million in 2008.
General aviation operations at airports with FAA traffic control and contract tower service will at first see a decline of 6.2 percent this year, then grow 1 percent each year to reach 34.6 million operations in 2025, the forecast said. Tracon operations involving GA aircraft are expected to decrease 3.4 percent this year, then start growing at a 1.3 percent rate to reach 18.7 million at the end of the FAA forecast period.
Phenom 300 photo credit: Embraer
