Events Overtake NASA Acceleration Study
By Frank Morring, Jr. 
Obama administration delays in setting out a clear space policy, with funding to go with it, appear to have rendered NASA plans to narrow the post-shuttle "gap" in U.S. human access to space out of date before they could be implemented.
A Constellation Program Acceleration Study prepared last year and released April 20 finds the U.S. space agency $1.9 billion short of the funds it needs to meet an internal initial operational capability (IOC) target date of September 2014. That milestone means sending astronauts to the International Space Station with an Ares I crew launch vehicle carrying an Orion crew exploration vehicle.
But the needed funds have not been forthcoming, and some of the activities the acceleration study suggested could increase confidence in meeting that date - including an extra flight-test - have been ruled out.
Factors cited in the internal NASA study as contributing to the shortfall include undefinitized changes in the Orion contract; the shift from land to water landing and its effect on Orion reusability, and the need for additional testing in the J2-X upper stage engine development program.
The study, which included managers and engineers inside and outside the Constellation Program that is building Ares I and Orion, also found a number of unfunded technical-baseline changes that contributed to the shortage of funds, including a phased-array communication system, high voltage power system, first stage nozzle extension and ongoing efforts to mitigate the thrust oscillation imparted to the Ares I/Orion stack as its solid fuel first stage nears burnout.
"Due to these factors, achieving the current baseline schedule ... with a September 2014 IOC is high programmatic risk and considered not achievable with the corresponding current technical content, cost and schedule," the report states.
NASA no longer carries the September 2014 IOC date, and is working to a public "commitment date" of March 2015, which already has been found optimistic by the Congressional Budget Office and the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel.
To improve confidence in the 2014 IOC, the acceleration panel report recommends restoring program reserves and deferred design and development work; early procurement of long lead items, and an accelerated flight-test program including an additional ascent abort test.
That test, designated Ares I-X prime, already has been rejected by top Constellation managers as too expensive under the present budget. Nor will it be possible to accelerate the Ares I-X flight-test given delays from last summer in getting the final shuttle mission to service the Hubble Space Telescope off the pad, clearing a backup pad at Kennedy Space Center for conversion to the Ares I-X configuration.
As a sign that the acceleration study has been overtaken by events, the report suggested "a few key decisions" that should have been taken before April 1, including "notifying contractors to prepare for staffing ramp-up, and program pre-planning efforts for acceleration before the turn-on date."
NASA probably will not send a Fiscal 2010 budget request to Capitol Hill until early next month, and so far has not determined how to spend the roughly $1 billion in stimulus package funding it has received. Nor has President Barack Obama named an administrator to succeed Michael Griffin, who left on Inauguration Day and has been replaced on an acting basis by Christopher Scolese, formerly the agency's chief engineer and associate administrator.
Instead, the agency has been "matching budget and schedule" based on available funding, according to a Constellation Program spokesman.
Artist's concept of Orion: NASA
