IATA: no recovery in sight until 2010

By Mark Pilling

The airline industry will not begin to recover until 2010 at the earliest, according to IATA head Giovanni Bisignani, speaking to journalists across the globe on a conference call this morning.

"This crisis is reshaping and resizing the industry," he says.

Bisignani didn't have good news: industry losses are forecast to reach $4.7 billion in 2009, almost double the $2.5 billion loss it was predicting in December.

This crisis is of a different magnitude in terms of revenue loss compared to the last downturn, the one triggered by the September 2001 terror attacks. After 9/11 industry revenue was hit by 6% in 2002. The new forecast sees revenues diving by 12% or $62 billion this year.

In terms of passenger traffic, IATA is forecasting a drop of 5.7% this year, with cargo dropping by 13%.

Total industry revenues will fall from $530 billion in 2008 to $467 billion this year, which is a significantly greater drop than after 9/11. "The industry is entering into serious intensive care mode," says Bisignani.

Asia is expected to be one of the worst hit areas in 2009 with losses of $1.7 billion.