FAA Forecasts 2009 Dive
By Jennifer Michels 
The FAA kicks off its 34th Annual Aviation Forecast Conference today in which it will reveal its expectations that airline profits and traffic for the most part in 2009 will fall sharply from last year, will plateau in 2010, and not take off again until 2011.
In its 2009-2025 forecast being released today, FAA’s predictions are tied closely to assumptions by the Obama Administration of when the economy will flatten out, and to rates of inflation assumptions. The administration believes the economy will begin to turn around at the end of this year, and start growing again in 2010, whereas other analysts and forecasters are more pessimistic.
The forecast assumes U.S. real GDP will increase from $11.7 trillion in 2008 to $18.3 trillion in 2025, which is an average annual rate of 2.7%. World GDP is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace — 3% — from $50.1 trillion to $82.8 trillion.
Total mainline air carrier and regional enplanements are expected to rise from 757.4 million in 2008 to 1.1 billion in 2025, an average annual rate of 2.2%. Domestic enplanements are expected to decrease 7.8% this year, and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% for the remaining 16 years. International enplanements are forecast to decrease 2.5% this year, and then average 4.3% growth per hear. Total system enplanements are expected to hit 1 billion in 2021; an earlier forecast pegged that at 2016.
Regional airlines are expected to see enplanements fall 4.5% this year, but then grow 3.5% per year, reaching 257.6 million in 2025, up from 153.5 million this year. Regional jets should increase from 1,655 aircraft last year to 2,249 in 2025, with all of the increase coming in the 70- to 90-seat category.
Cargo revenue ton miles should be down 7.6% this year, but will then see an average growth of 4.2%. FAA predicts that cargo RTMs for U.S. commercial carriers will be down 8.3% domestically and 7.2% internationally. The cargo fleet should increase from 949 aircraft last year to 1,584 in 2025.
Total passengers to and from the U.S. on any airline is projected to fall 0.9% this year. The average annual rate of growth from last year to 2025 is expected to be 4.2%, with Asia/Pacific growing the fastest at 5.2%, followed by Latin America at 4.3%, the Atlantic at 4% and Canadian transborder 3.2%. The growth in passenger traffic in Asia is being seen mostly in China and India, and in Latin America, it is in Brazil and Mexico.
Photo: Benet Wilson
