Premium Airline Traffic Decline Worsening

Feb 18, 2009
Adrian Schofield adrian_schofield@aviationweek.com



The year-on-year decline in premium traffic continued to accelerate in December, with the Asia-Pacific market again particularly hard hit, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Overall premium passenger numbers were down 13.3% in December, after an 11.5% decline in November. This follows the recent downward trend, and IATA warns that even larger decreases will be seen in the early part of 2009.

Economy passenger numbers were down 5.3%, a slightly better result than the 6% drop in November. Again, the decline should worsen--IATA believes many leisure trips were booked before the downturn hit, so January could see a much steeper drop.

Much of the decrease in traffic can be blamed on substantial capacity cuts airlines are making. However, IATA stressed that the traffic drop is exceeding capacity reductions. Premium revenue was down 20% in December, IATA estimates.

The transpacific market saw the largest drop in premium passengers in December, down almost 20% year-on-year. IATA said this is consistent with economic weakness in the region. The passenger decline was 25.1% for flights within the Far East, 19.7% for transpacific routes, and 17.3% on the Europe-Far East market.

There were 8.8% fewer transatlantic premium passengers in the month, only slightly less than the November decline. Premium traffic within Europe dropped 16.3%. The Middle East region saw a decline of 4%-5% on most routes, despite promising signs in November. Africa was the only region that saw passenger growth in December, with an increase of 11.8%.

For the full year 2008, overall passenger numbers in international markets were up 0.5%. Full-year premium traffic dropped 2.8%, but this was more than offset by the 0.9% increase in economy travelers. While total passenger numbers were up 0.5%, revenue passenger kilometers rose 1.6%.